Scouting Report
Roope Hintz holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). MacKinnon wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hintz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.3% vs Hintz 58.0% (-7.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hintz 84.6%
Defensive zone
Hintz 88.2%
Neutral zone
Hintz 82.6%
Result
Roope Hintz favored at 84.3%
15.7%
84.3%
MacKinnon
Hintz
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
MacKinnon
Hintz
Last 7: MacKinnon 5-2 Hintz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
0
MacKinnon
Hintz
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hintz
0
1
MacKinnon
Hintz
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
1
MacKinnon
Hintz
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Hintz
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (992)
58.7% (530)
-8.7%
Power Play
64.9% (148)
59.4% (170)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
66.7% (27)
-32.3%
On penalty kill, Hintz has a +32.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hintz shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
MacKinnon shoots right. Hintz is 57.3% vs right-shot opponents (260).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Hintz
Home
53.3% (591)
60.2% (354)
Away
49.6% (581)
58.2% (373)
By Period
MacKinnon
Hintz
P1
49.9%
58.4%
P2
53.2%
59.8%
P3
50.8%
58.2%
OT
66.7%
81.8%
Final 5 min
56.1%
57.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Hintz
64.0%▲
61.0%
59.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 07:11 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 11, 2025 | OT | 04:21 | Defensive | Roope Hintz |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 19:54 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 18:25 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 06:18 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Roope Hintz |