Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.1% vs 54.2%). Look for Burish on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Burish wins 57.8% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Burish 53.8% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 66.7%
Defensive zone
Burish 83.4%
Neutral zone
Burish 58.6%
Result
Adam Burish favored at 66.8%
66.8%
33.2%
Burish
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Burish
Pavelski
Last 9: Burish 3-6 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
2
Burish
Pavelski
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Burish
3
2
Burish
Pavelski
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
2
Burish
Pavelski
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Burish
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
54.6% (958)
53.6% (8,791)
+1.0%
Power Play
47.5% (40)
58.2% (2,122)
-10.7%
Penalty Kill
53.0% (270)
50.9% (1,138)
+2.1%
On power play, Pavelski has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Burish is 57.8% vs right-shot opponents (327).
Burish shoots right. Pavelski is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,971).
Home / Away
Burish
Pavelski
Home
58.1% (578)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
50.7% (698)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Burish
Pavelski
P1
53.0%
53.5%
P2
53.8%
55.2%
P3
55.8%
53.9%
OT
40.0%
52.3%
Final 5 min
57.5%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Burish
52.0%▬
53.0%
54.1%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2011 | 2 | 16:32 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 2 | 14:29 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 1 | 17:05 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 1 | 09:25 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 1 | 06:40 | Defensive | Adam Burish |
| Dec 16, 2010 | 3 | 13:59 | Defensive | Adam Burish |
| Dec 16, 2010 | 3 | 09:06 | Defensive | Adam Burish |
| Dec 13, 2010 | 2 | 13:27 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 13, 2010 | 2 | 01:14 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |