Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.5% vs 54.3%). Look for Burish on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Burish wins 61.9% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Burish 52.9% vs Pavelski 53.9% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 64.4%
Defensive zone
Burish 82.0%
Neutral zone
Burish 61.8%
Result
Adam Burish favored at 67.2%
67.2%
32.8%
Burish
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Burish
Pavelski
Last 9: Burish 3-6 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
2
Burish
Pavelski
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Burish
3
2
Burish
Pavelski
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
2
Burish
Pavelski
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Burish
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (331)
53.4% (682)
+2.5%
Power Play
33.3% (12)
63.7% (168)
-30.4%
Penalty Kill
48.4% (128)
48.1% (160)
+0.3%
On power play, Pavelski has a +30.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Burish is 61.9% vs right-shot opponents (126).
Burish shoots right. Pavelski is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (230).
Home / Away
Burish
Pavelski
Home
57.1% (233)
59.0% (527)
Away
50.0% (244)
49.3% (493)
By Period
Burish
Pavelski
P1
52.9%
50.8%
P2
51.0%
58.9%
P3
56.8%
53.6%
OT
42.9%
42.9%
Final 5 min
58.9%
54.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Burish
52.0%▬
53.0%
53.5%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2011 | 2 | 16:32 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 2 | 14:29 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 1 | 17:05 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 1 | 09:25 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 1 | 06:40 | Defensive | Adam Burish |
| Dec 16, 2010 | 3 | 13:59 | Defensive | Adam Burish |
| Dec 16, 2010 | 3 | 09:06 | Defensive | Adam Burish |
| Dec 13, 2010 | 2 | 13:27 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 13, 2010 | 2 | 01:14 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |