Scouting Report
Adam Fantilli holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Kapanen on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Fantilli wins 53.9% vs right-shot opponents — Kapanen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 50.0% vs Kapanen 47.8% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 61.1%
Defensive zone
Kapanen 65.5%
Neutral zone
Kapanen 52.7%
Result
Oliver Kapanen favored at 52.7%
47.3%
52.7%
Fantilli
Kapanen
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Fantilli
Kapanen
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kapanen
1
2
Fantilli
Kapanen
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Kapanen
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (842)
47.5% (514)
+2.1%
Power Play
52.5% (99)
55.0% (40)
-2.5%
Penalty Kill
54.5% (11)
39.5% (38)
+15.0%
On penalty kill, Fantilli has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kapanen shoots right. Fantilli is 53.9% vs right-shot opponents (330).
Fantilli shoots left. Kapanen is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (438).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Kapanen
Home
50.8% (472)
47.9% (307)
Away
49.2% (480)
47.0% (285)
By Period
Fantilli
Kapanen
P1
47.8%
42.7%
P2
52.7%
51.4%
P3
50.0%
48.4%
OT
30.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
51.1%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
50.0%
Kapanen
48.0%▬
48.5%
47.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2025 | 3 | 17:15 | Neutral | Oliver Kapanen |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 3 | 08:28 | Neutral | Oliver Kapanen |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 08:03 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |