Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +11.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaudette on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Gaudette wins 44.5% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaudette 44.5% vs Kesler 55.9% (-11.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gaudette 77.1%
Defensive zone
Kesler 59.7%
Neutral zone
Gaudette 64.1%
Result
Adam Gaudette favored at 58.3%
58.3%
41.7%
Gaudette
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Gaudette
Kesler
Last 6: Gaudette 2-4 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
0
1
Gaudette
Kesler
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
0
2
Gaudette
Kesler
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaudette
2
1
Gaudette
Kesler
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaudette
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
43.7% (1,468)
56.4% (8,095)
-12.7%
Power Play
47.5% (183)
60.7% (1,437)
-13.2%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (15)
50.5% (1,908)
-3.8%
On power play, Kesler has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Gaudette is 44.5% vs right-shot opponents (481).
Gaudette shoots right. Kesler is 55.6% vs right-shot opponents (3,497).
Home / Away
Gaudette
Kesler
Home
45.9% (912)
57.2% (5,732)
Away
41.9% (754)
54.7% (5,751)
By Period
Gaudette
Kesler
P1
44.4%
56.5%
P2
46.5%
55.9%
P3
41.1%
56.1%
OT
100.0%
46.0%
Final 5 min
46.1%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaudette
46.0%▼
48.5%
44.1%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2019 | 3 | 17:23 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 25, 2019 | 2 | 11:43 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 25, 2019 | 1 | 16:58 | Neutral | Adam Gaudette |
| Feb 25, 2019 | 1 | 08:04 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 13, 2019 | 2 | 15:07 | Neutral | Adam Gaudette |
| Nov 21, 2018 | 1 | 14:13 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |