Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.6% vs 50.1%). Look for Kelly on defensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 50.6% vs Kelly 50.1% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Kelly leads 14-10 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Henrique 58.6%
Defensive zone
Kelly 68.2%
Neutral zone
Kelly 58.1%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 56.6%
43.4%
56.6%
Henrique
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
14
(24 meetings)
10
14
Henrique
Kelly
Last 10: Henrique 7-3 Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
6
1
Henrique
Kelly
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
1
7
Henrique
Kelly
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
3
6
Henrique
Kelly
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (9,465)
51.1% (3,010)
-0.4%
Power Play
54.5% (1,760)
60.6% (71)
-6.1%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (1,794)
44.7% (689)
+1.6%
On power play, Kelly has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. Henrique is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (8,431).
Henrique shoots left. Kelly is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,408).
Home / Away
Henrique
Kelly
Home
52.5% (6,376)
52.6% (1,965)
Away
48.8% (6,666)
47.4% (1,813)
By Period
Henrique
Kelly
P1
50.6%
49.2%
P2
51.4%
49.1%
P3
50.2%
51.9%
OT
40.6%
53.5%
Final 5 min
50.4%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
58.0%▲
52.5%
50.6%
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2014 | 2 | 01:23 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Mar 18, 2014 | 1 | 18:43 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Mar 18, 2014 | 1 | 18:35 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Oct 26, 2013 | 3 | 09:41 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Oct 26, 2013 | 3 | 06:10 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Oct 26, 2013 | 3 | 01:49 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 26, 2013 | 2 | 08:10 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 26, 2013 | 2 | 06:49 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Oct 26, 2013 | 2 | 01:09 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 26, 2013 | 1 | 19:28 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Apr 10, 2013 | 3 | 15:40 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Apr 10, 2013 | 3 | 10:26 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Apr 10, 2013 | 2 | 06:45 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Apr 10, 2013 | 2 | 02:17 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Apr 10, 2013 | 1 | 15:42 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Apr 10, 2013 | 1 | 07:02 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Apr 10, 2013 | 1 | 04:51 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 1, 2012 | OT | 00:58 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 1, 2012 | 3 | 15:52 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 19, 2012 | 3 | 08:14 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |