Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Lowry wins 60.4% vs right-shot opponents — Sourdif shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.4% vs Sourdif 45.9% (+8.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sourdif 75.5%
Defensive zone
Sourdif 66.2%
Neutral zone
Sourdif 63.9%
Result
Justin Sourdif favored at 67.4%
32.6%
67.4%
Lowry
Sourdif
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Lowry
Sourdif
Last 8: Lowry 3-5 Sourdif
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lowry
Sourdif
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sourdif
0
2
Lowry
Sourdif
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Lowry
Sourdif
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Sourdif
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (675)
44.6% (556)
+10.8%
Power Play
83.3% (6)
50.0% (24)
+33.3%
Penalty Kill
40.4% (89)
61.5% (13)
-21.1%
On power play, Lowry has a +33.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sourdif shoots right. Lowry is 60.4% vs right-shot opponents (227).
Lowry shoots left. Sourdif is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (418).
Home / Away
Lowry
Sourdif
Home
54.5% (402)
43.6% (321)
Away
53.3% (368)
47.1% (272)
By Period
Lowry
Sourdif
P1
52.4%
43.1%
P2
56.0%
43.9%
P3
54.2%
48.6%
OT
40.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
58.1%
44.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
53.9%
Sourdif
32.0%▼
40.5%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 15:35 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 11:08 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 03:33 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 00:18 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 18:15 | Offensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 01:30 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 01:24 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |