Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Lowry on defensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.5% vs Hayes 47.7% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Lowry leads 18-15 in 33 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayes 54.2%
Defensive zone
Lowry 77.9%
Neutral zone
Lowry 68.8%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 62.9%
62.9%
37.1%
Lowry
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
15
(33 meetings)
18
15
Lowry
Hayes
Last 10: Lowry 5-5 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
4
8
Lowry
Hayes
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
8
1
Lowry
Hayes
9 total
Neutral Zone
Even
6
6
Lowry
Hayes
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (9,130)
47.5% (6,708)
+5.3%
Power Play
57.1% (455)
51.7% (702)
+5.4%
Penalty Kill
44.9% (2,139)
45.3% (697)
-0.4%
On power play, Lowry has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Lowry is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,740).
Lowry shoots left. Hayes is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,132).
Home / Away
Lowry
Hayes
Home
53.5% (5,893)
48.1% (3,982)
Away
49.6% (5,831)
47.3% (4,125)
By Period
Lowry
Hayes
P1
51.5%
47.5%
P2
51.8%
47.6%
P3
51.4%
47.9%
OT
46.3%
54.1%
Final 5 min
52.9%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
51.6%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2024 | 2 | 01:22 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 3 | 10:13 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 1 | 06:01 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 08:43 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 22, 2023 | 3 | 11:52 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Apr 27, 2022 | 3 | 17:24 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 27, 2022 | 3 | 17:20 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 27, 2022 | 2 | 19:37 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 27, 2022 | 2 | 12:09 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 27, 2022 | 1 | 15:46 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 15, 2019 | 3 | 09:41 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 12, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 12, 2019 | 2 | 19:42 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 12, 2019 | 2 | 17:37 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 12, 2019 | 2 | 06:54 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 12, 2019 | 2 | 03:37 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 12, 2019 | 2 | 00:38 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 12, 2019 | 1 | 19:33 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 12, 2019 | 1 | 06:25 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 2, 2018 | 2 | 16:50 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |