Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (40.7% vs 40.8%). Kempe wins 42.3% vs right-shot opponents — Connolly shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kempe 41.1% vs Connolly 43.2% (-0.1%)
Offensive zone
Connolly 52.9%
Defensive zone
Kempe 63.4%
Neutral zone
Connolly 51.2%
Result
Adrian Kempe favored at 53.1%
53.1%
46.9%
Kempe
Connolly
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kempe
Connolly
Edge
Even Strength
40.3% (1,865)
40.2% (229)
+0.1%
Power Play
44.3% (201)
43.1% (58)
+1.2%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (53)
50.0% (2)
-6.6%
On penalty kill, Connolly has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Connolly shoots right. Kempe is 42.3% vs right-shot opponents (778).
Kempe shoots left. Connolly is 38.9% vs left-shot opponents (208).
Home / Away
Kempe
Connolly
Home
42.6% (1,033)
42.6% (129)
Away
39.0% (1,086)
39.4% (160)
By Period
Kempe
Connolly
P1
39.7%
41.8%
P2
40.2%
40.0%
P3
42.4%
40.6%
Final 5 min
37.2%
43.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kempe
32.0%▼
37.0%
40.7%
Connolly
30.0%▼
38.5%
40.8%