Scouting Report
David Backes holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Kempe on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kempe wins 41.9% vs right-shot opponents — Backes shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kempe 41.0% vs Backes 50.7% (-10.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backes 74.8%
Defensive zone
Backes 94.1%
Neutral zone
Backes 91.0%
Result
David Backes favored at 87.3%
12.7%
87.3%
Kempe
Backes
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Kempe
Backes
Last 7: Kempe 5-2 Backes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kempe
2
0
Kempe
Backes
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kempe
Backes
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kempe
2
1
Kempe
Backes
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kempe
Backes
Edge
Even Strength
40.2% (1,881)
51.1% (5,772)
-10.9%
Power Play
43.1% (211)
50.8% (1,082)
-7.7%
Penalty Kill
42.6% (54)
47.4% (930)
-4.8%
On even strength, Backes has a +10.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backes shoots right. Kempe is 41.9% vs right-shot opponents (790).
Kempe shoots left. Backes is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,704).
Home / Away
Kempe
Backes
Home
42.4% (1,045)
50.6% (3,936)
Away
38.8% (1,101)
50.7% (3,895)
By Period
Kempe
Backes
P1
39.5%
50.1%
P2
40.1%
51.5%
P3
42.2%
50.8%
OT
37.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
37.2%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kempe
26.0%▼
35.5%
40.5%
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2017 | 3 | 17:22 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Oct 28, 2017 | 3 | 08:02 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Oct 28, 2017 | 3 | 01:07 | Defensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Oct 28, 2017 | 2 | 13:55 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Oct 28, 2017 | 2 | 10:39 | Neutral | Adrian Kempe |
| Oct 28, 2017 | 2 | 04:21 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Oct 28, 2017 | 1 | 08:52 | Neutral | Adrian Kempe |