Scouting Report
Sam Gagner holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Gagner on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kempe wins 41.9% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kempe 41.0% vs Gagner 46.0% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Gagner leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Kempe 59.7%
Defensive zone
Kempe 52.5%
Neutral zone
Kempe 56.7%
Result
Adrian Kempe favored at 57.6%
57.6%
42.4%
Kempe
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Kempe
Gagner
Last 10: Kempe 5-5 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Kempe
Gagner
6 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kempe
Gagner
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gagner
1
2
Kempe
Gagner
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kempe
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
40.2% (1,881)
45.4% (4,699)
-5.2%
Power Play
43.1% (211)
51.5% (928)
-8.4%
Penalty Kill
42.6% (54)
35.0% (226)
+7.6%
On power play, Gagner has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Kempe is 41.9% vs right-shot opponents (790).
Kempe shoots left. Gagner is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (4,184).
Home / Away
Kempe
Gagner
Home
42.4% (1,045)
48.7% (3,025)
Away
38.8% (1,101)
43.0% (2,843)
By Period
Kempe
Gagner
P1
39.5%
44.6%
P2
40.1%
46.1%
P3
42.2%
47.3%
OT
37.0%
42.0%
Final 5 min
37.2%
45.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kempe
26.0%▼
35.5%
40.5%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2022 | 1 | 04:23 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Mar 12, 2018 | 2 | 15:37 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Dec 30, 2017 | 3 | 02:58 | Neutral | Adrian Kempe |
| Dec 30, 2017 | 3 | 00:41 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Dec 30, 2017 | 2 | 18:01 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Dec 30, 2017 | 2 | 08:47 | Defensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Dec 30, 2017 | 2 | 03:21 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Dec 30, 2017 | 2 | 01:27 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Dec 30, 2017 | 1 | 19:28 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Dec 30, 2017 | 1 | 12:36 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Nov 14, 2017 | 1 | 17:37 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |