Scouting Report
Aleksander Barkov holds a +12.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Barkov on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Barkov wins 56.5% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 54.4% vs Smith 47.9% (+12.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barkov 90.1%
Defensive zone
Barkov 78.9%
Neutral zone
Barkov 80.4%
Result
Aleksander Barkov favored at 79.5%
79.5%
20.5%
Barkov
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Barkov
Smith
Last 7: Barkov 6-1 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barkov
4
0
Barkov
Smith
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barkov
2
1
Barkov
Smith
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (724)
50.0% (34)
+3.0%
Power Play
62.6% (235)
0.0% (1)
+62.6%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (67)
0.0% (5)
+47.8%
On power play, Barkov has a +62.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Barkov is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (678).
Barkov shoots left. Smith is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (32).
Home / Away
Barkov
Smith
Home
56.1% (522)
33.3% (21)
Away
53.6% (504)
52.6% (19)
By Period
Barkov
Smith
P1
52.3%
50.0%
P2
56.8%
47.4%
P3
55.3%
30.8%
Final 5 min
53.5%
20.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
54.9%
Smith
46.0%▬
47.0%
42.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2021 | 2 | 17:25 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| May 10, 2021 | 2 | 09:23 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| May 10, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Gemel Smith |
| Feb 15, 2021 | 3 | 13:03 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Feb 15, 2021 | 3 | 09:43 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Feb 15, 2021 | 3 | 03:16 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Feb 13, 2021 | 2 | 12:13 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |