Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +14.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tanguay wins 36.2% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tanguay 41.6% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-14.8%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Tanguay 90.3%
Defensive zone
Tanguay 85.4%
Neutral zone
Tanguay 90.9%
Result
Alex Tanguay favored at 89.0%
89.0%
11.0%
Tanguay
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
8
(10 meetings)
2
8
Tanguay
Pavelski
Last 10: Tanguay 2-8 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
3
Tanguay
Pavelski
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
3
Tanguay
Pavelski
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
2
Tanguay
Pavelski
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tanguay
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
39.4% (251)
53.6% (8,791)
-14.2%
Power Play
41.0% (39)
58.2% (2,122)
-17.2%
Penalty Kill
38.2% (89)
50.9% (1,138)
-12.7%
On power play, Pavelski has a +17.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Tanguay is 36.2% vs right-shot opponents (138).
Tanguay shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Home / Away
Tanguay
Pavelski
Home
38.9% (203)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
40.0% (180)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Tanguay
Pavelski
P1
42.9%
53.5%
P2
35.9%
55.2%
P3
40.3%
53.9%
OT
36.7%
52.3%
Final 5 min
37.5%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tanguay
44.0%▲
40.0%
39.4%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2013 | 2 | 15:50 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 20, 2013 | 3 | 17:10 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 20, 2013 | 3 | 13:06 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 20, 2013 | 3 | 03:17 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 20, 2013 | 2 | 04:53 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 20, 2013 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 13, 2012 | 2 | 02:16 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 13, 2012 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Alex Tanguay |
| Feb 8, 2012 | 3 | 10:23 | Offensive | Alex Tanguay |
| Feb 8, 2012 | 1 | 14:37 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |