Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +12.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tanguay wins 32.8% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tanguay 43.2% vs Pavelski 51.6% (-12.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tanguay 84.6%
Defensive zone
Tanguay 82.8%
Neutral zone
Tanguay 83.7%
Result
Alex Tanguay favored at 83.8%
83.8%
16.2%
Tanguay
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
6
(6 meetings)
0
6
Tanguay
Pavelski
Last 6: Tanguay 0-6 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
3
Tanguay
Pavelski
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
2
Tanguay
Pavelski
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Tanguay
Pavelski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tanguay
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
40.2% (122)
50.4% (480)
-10.2%
Power Play
29.2% (24)
51.5% (97)
-22.3%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (27)
60.2% (83)
-15.8%
On power play, Pavelski has a +22.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Tanguay is 32.8% vs right-shot opponents (58).
Tanguay shoots left. Pavelski is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (490).
Home / Away
Tanguay
Pavelski
Home
41.6% (101)
53.1% (311)
Away
36.1% (72)
50.7% (349)
By Period
Tanguay
Pavelski
P1
45.9%
55.4%
P2
36.5%
49.6%
P3
34.8%
51.7%
OT
33.3%
36.4%
Final 5 min
43.6%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tanguay
44.0%▲
40.0%
39.3%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2013 | 2 | 15:50 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 20, 2013 | 3 | 17:10 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 20, 2013 | 3 | 13:06 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 20, 2013 | 3 | 03:17 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 20, 2013 | 2 | 04:53 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 20, 2013 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |