Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +14.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Tanguay wins 41.2% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tanguay 41.6% vs Duchene 54.1% (-14.8%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 58.3%
Defensive zone
Tanguay 54.2%
Neutral zone
Tanguay 53.4%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 52.9%
47.1%
52.9%
Tanguay
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Tanguay
Duchene
Last 10: Tanguay 4-6 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Tanguay
Duchene
6 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tanguay
Duchene
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
2
Tanguay
Duchene
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tanguay
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
39.4% (251)
54.0% (10,249)
-14.6%
Power Play
41.0% (39)
56.9% (1,620)
-15.9%
Penalty Kill
38.2% (89)
49.3% (467)
-11.1%
On power play, Duchene has a +15.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Tanguay is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (245).
Tanguay shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (7,938).
Home / Away
Tanguay
Duchene
Home
38.9% (203)
55.6% (6,270)
Away
40.0% (180)
52.7% (6,090)
By Period
Tanguay
Duchene
P1
42.9%
54.5%
P2
35.9%
54.5%
P3
40.3%
53.4%
OT
36.7%
55.9%
Final 5 min
37.5%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tanguay
44.0%▲
40.0%
39.4%
Duchene
52.0%▲
49.5%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2013 | 2 | 03:06 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2013 | 2 | 07:32 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2013 | 2 | 01:44 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2013 | 1 | 06:10 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 31, 2013 | 2 | 16:06 | Offensive | Alex Tanguay |
| Jan 31, 2013 | 2 | 03:32 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 31, 2013 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Alex Tanguay |
| Jan 31, 2013 | 1 | 16:45 | Offensive | Alex Tanguay |
| Jan 31, 2013 | 1 | 02:40 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 17, 2011 | 3 | 18:21 | Defensive | Alex Tanguay |
| Mar 17, 2011 | 1 | 09:48 | Offensive | Alex Tanguay |