Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +15.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Tanguay wins 42.6% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tanguay 43.2% vs Duchene 54.2% (-15.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tanguay 63.5%
Defensive zone
Tanguay 61.6%
Neutral zone
Tanguay 63.9%
Result
Alex Tanguay favored at 63.4%
63.4%
36.6%
Tanguay
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Tanguay
Duchene
Last 9: Tanguay 3-6 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
3
Tanguay
Duchene
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Tanguay
Duchene
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
2
Tanguay
Duchene
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tanguay
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
40.2% (122)
56.8% (706)
-16.6%
Power Play
29.2% (24)
56.1% (57)
-26.9%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (27)
42.3% (130)
+2.1%
On power play, Duchene has a +26.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Tanguay is 42.6% vs left-shot opponents (115).
Tanguay shoots left. Duchene is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (635).
Home / Away
Tanguay
Duchene
Home
41.6% (101)
56.6% (488)
Away
36.1% (72)
52.3% (405)
By Period
Tanguay
Duchene
P1
45.9%
52.0%
P2
36.5%
53.7%
P3
34.8%
58.5%
OT
33.3%
46.7%
Final 5 min
43.6%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tanguay
44.0%▲
40.0%
39.3%
Duchene
52.0%▲
49.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2013 | 2 | 03:06 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2013 | 2 | 07:32 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2013 | 2 | 01:44 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2013 | 1 | 06:10 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 31, 2013 | 2 | 16:06 | Offensive | Alex Tanguay |
| Jan 31, 2013 | 2 | 03:32 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 31, 2013 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Alex Tanguay |
| Jan 31, 2013 | 1 | 16:45 | Offensive | Alex Tanguay |
| Jan 31, 2013 | 1 | 02:40 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |