Scouting Report
Andy McDonald holds a +17.7% FO% edge overall. Look for McDonald on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Cogliano wins 40.3% vs left-shot opponents — McDonald shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cogliano 42.3% vs McDonald 57.2% (-17.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cogliano 65.5%
Defensive zone
Cogliano 84.1%
Neutral zone
Cogliano 80.3%
Result
Andrew Cogliano favored at 81.5%
81.5%
18.5%
Cogliano
McDonald
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Cogliano
McDonald
Last 6: Cogliano 1-5 McDonald
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cogliano
McDonald
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDonald
0
4
Cogliano
McDonald
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cogliano
McDonald
Edge
Even Strength
41.6% (810)
58.9% (246)
-17.3%
Power Play
43.9% (66)
62.7% (75)
-18.8%
Penalty Kill
40.9% (215)
47.8% (23)
-6.9%
On power play, McDonald has a +18.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDonald shoots left. Cogliano is 40.3% vs left-shot opponents (767).
Cogliano shoots left. McDonald is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (242).
Home / Away
Cogliano
McDonald
Home
43.7% (572)
63.5% (148)
Away
39.4% (536)
56.2% (201)
By Period
Cogliano
McDonald
P1
39.2%
64.2%
P2
37.4%
53.8%
P3
48.2%
59.8%
OT
38.9%
66.7%
Final 5 min
39.4%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cogliano
30.0%▼
36.5%
41.6%
McDonald
56.0%▲
48.0%
59.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2011 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Andy McDonald |
| Mar 24, 2011 | 1 | 17:43 | Defensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Mar 24, 2011 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Andy McDonald |
| Feb 25, 2011 | 2 | 16:39 | Neutral | Andy McDonald |
| Feb 25, 2011 | 2 | 09:43 | Defensive | Andy McDonald |
| Feb 25, 2011 | 2 | 01:28 | Neutral | Andy McDonald |