Scouting Report
Jason Arnott holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Arnott on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Cogliano wins 44.6% vs right-shot opponents — Arnott shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cogliano 42.3% vs Arnott 50.2% (-8.6%)
H2H factor
Arnott leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Cogliano 53.3%
Defensive zone
Cogliano 80.6%
Neutral zone
Cogliano 69.4%
Result
Andrew Cogliano favored at 67.4%
67.4%
32.6%
Cogliano
Arnott
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Cogliano
Arnott
Last 10: Cogliano 3-7 Arnott
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Arnott
1
3
Cogliano
Arnott
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Arnott
1
3
Cogliano
Arnott
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Cogliano
Arnott
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cogliano
Arnott
Edge
Even Strength
41.6% (810)
49.0% (777)
-7.4%
Power Play
43.9% (66)
58.1% (93)
-14.2%
Penalty Kill
40.9% (215)
30.0% (10)
+10.9%
On power play, Arnott has a +14.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Arnott shoots right. Cogliano is 44.6% vs right-shot opponents (341).
Cogliano shoots left. Arnott is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Home / Away
Cogliano
Arnott
Home
43.7% (572)
51.1% (460)
Away
39.4% (536)
49.3% (434)
By Period
Cogliano
Arnott
P1
39.2%
45.3%
P2
37.4%
54.2%
P3
48.2%
49.8%
OT
38.9%
66.7%
Final 5 min
39.4%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cogliano
30.0%▼
36.5%
41.6%
Arnott
50.0%▬
50.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2011 | 3 | 06:34 | Defensive | Jason Arnott |
| Mar 9, 2011 | 3 | 03:10 | Neutral | Andrew Cogliano |
| Mar 9, 2011 | 2 | 16:06 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Mar 9, 2011 | 2 | 11:55 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Mar 9, 2011 | 1 | 09:34 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Nov 12, 2010 | 2 | 14:48 | Defensive | Jason Arnott |
| Nov 12, 2010 | 2 | 05:11 | Neutral | Jason Arnott |
| Nov 12, 2010 | 2 | 02:48 | Defensive | Jason Arnott |
| Nov 12, 2010 | 1 | 07:47 | Offensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Nov 12, 2010 | 1 | 05:27 | Defensive | Andrew Cogliano |