Scouting Report
Jason Arnott holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Arnott on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 10 meetings). Cogliano wins 43.3% vs right-shot opponents — Arnott shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cogliano 43.6% vs Arnott 50.3% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Arnott leads 11-3 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Cogliano 77.9%
Defensive zone
Cogliano 91.6%
Neutral zone
Cogliano 80.8%
Result
Andrew Cogliano favored at 82.0%
82.0%
18.0%
Cogliano
Arnott
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
11
(14 meetings)
3
11
Cogliano
Arnott
Last 10: Cogliano 3-7 Arnott
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cogliano
Arnott
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cogliano
2
0
Cogliano
Arnott
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Arnott
0
10
Cogliano
Arnott
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cogliano
Arnott
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (308)
50.5% (667)
-6.3%
Power Play
46.7% (15)
49.4% (89)
-2.7%
Penalty Kill
35.8% (53)
60.0% (5)
-24.2%
On penalty kill, Arnott has a +24.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Arnott shoots right. Cogliano is 43.3% vs right-shot opponents (120).
Cogliano shoots left. Arnott is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (548).
Home / Away
Cogliano
Arnott
Home
50.0% (188)
53.1% (431)
Away
34.3% (198)
46.7% (338)
By Period
Cogliano
Arnott
P1
44.0%
46.9%
P2
41.3%
52.9%
P3
40.5%
50.4%
OT
44.4%
100.0%
Final 5 min
42.5%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cogliano
30.0%▼
36.5%
42.0%
Arnott
50.0%▬
50.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2012 | 3 | 17:29 | Defensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Mar 8, 2012 | 2 | 14:39 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Mar 8, 2012 | 2 | 04:18 | Neutral | Jason Arnott |
| Dec 8, 2011 | 3 | 09:37 | Defensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Dec 8, 2011 | 3 | 09:09 | Neutral | Jason Arnott |
| Dec 8, 2011 | 3 | 03:17 | Neutral | Jason Arnott |
| Dec 8, 2011 | 1 | 06:02 | Neutral | Jason Arnott |
| Oct 16, 2011 | 3 | 07:17 | Offensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Oct 16, 2011 | 3 | 05:06 | Neutral | Jason Arnott |
| Oct 16, 2011 | 3 | 01:31 | Neutral | Jason Arnott |
| Oct 16, 2011 | 2 | 13:56 | Neutral | Jason Arnott |
| Oct 16, 2011 | 2 | 11:37 | Neutral | Jason Arnott |
| Oct 16, 2011 | 2 | 08:08 | Neutral | Jason Arnott |
| Oct 16, 2011 | 2 | 04:07 | Neutral | Jason Arnott |