Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (42.0% vs 42.2%). Look for Cogliano on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Cogliano wins 41.4% vs left-shot opponents — Ribeiro shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cogliano 43.6% vs Ribeiro 43.1% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ribeiro 65.0%
Defensive zone
Cogliano 64.7%
Neutral zone
Ribeiro 54.2%
Result
Andrew Cogliano favored at 53.9%
53.9%
46.1%
Cogliano
Ribeiro
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Cogliano
Ribeiro
Last 8: Cogliano 5-3 Ribeiro
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ribeiro
0
1
Cogliano
Ribeiro
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cogliano
3
1
Cogliano
Ribeiro
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cogliano
2
1
Cogliano
Ribeiro
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cogliano
Ribeiro
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (308)
42.5% (624)
+1.7%
Power Play
46.7% (15)
42.2% (128)
+4.5%
Penalty Kill
35.8% (53)
36.7% (49)
-0.9%
On power play, Cogliano has a +4.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ribeiro shoots left. Cogliano is 41.4% vs left-shot opponents (266).
Cogliano shoots left. Ribeiro is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (560).
Home / Away
Cogliano
Ribeiro
Home
50.0% (188)
44.3% (395)
Away
34.3% (198)
40.2% (413)
By Period
Cogliano
Ribeiro
P1
44.0%
36.5%
P2
41.3%
43.8%
P3
40.5%
45.6%
OT
44.4%
57.9%
Final 5 min
42.5%
33.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cogliano
30.0%▼
36.5%
42.0%
Ribeiro
34.0%▼
36.0%
42.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2012 | 3 | 14:49 | Defensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Mar 10, 2012 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mike Ribeiro |
| Mar 10, 2012 | 1 | 16:20 | Defensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Mar 10, 2012 | 1 | 14:13 | Offensive | Mike Ribeiro |
| Mar 10, 2012 | 1 | 12:13 | Neutral | Andrew Cogliano |
| Mar 10, 2012 | 1 | 08:05 | Defensive | Mike Ribeiro |
| Jan 24, 2012 | 2 | 13:36 | Defensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Oct 21, 2011 | 1 | 07:40 | Neutral | Andrew Cogliano |