Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +15.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Cogliano on neutral-zone draws (59% H2H, 17 meetings). Cogliano wins 43.2% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cogliano 41.2% vs Kesler 55.9% (-15.2%)
H2H factor
Cogliano leads 20-15 in 35 meetings
Offensive zone
Kesler 89.9%
Defensive zone
Kesler 88.4%
Neutral zone
Kesler 88.9%
Result
Ryan Kesler favored at 89.1%
10.9%
89.1%
Cogliano
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
15
(35 meetings)
20
15
Cogliano
Kesler
Last 10: Cogliano 7-3 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
5
5
Cogliano
Kesler
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cogliano
5
3
Cogliano
Kesler
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cogliano
10
7
Cogliano
Kesler
17 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cogliano
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
41.7% (1,486)
56.4% (8,095)
-14.7%
Power Play
42.0% (88)
60.7% (1,437)
-18.7%
Penalty Kill
38.8% (502)
50.5% (1,908)
-11.7%
On power play, Kesler has a +18.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Cogliano is 43.2% vs right-shot opponents (703).
Cogliano shoots left. Kesler is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (7,986).
Home / Away
Cogliano
Kesler
Home
43.4% (1,069)
57.2% (5,732)
Away
38.1% (1,034)
54.7% (5,751)
By Period
Cogliano
Kesler
P1
41.2%
56.5%
P2
37.7%
55.9%
P3
43.6%
56.1%
OT
41.5%
46.0%
Final 5 min
38.9%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cogliano
30.0%▼
36.5%
40.8%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2013 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 25, 2013 | 2 | 10:51 | Defensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Dec 29, 2011 | 3 | 14:24 | Neutral | Andrew Cogliano |
| Dec 29, 2011 | 2 | 19:00 | Offensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Dec 29, 2011 | 2 | 08:07 | Defensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Dec 29, 2011 | 2 | 07:59 | Neutral | Andrew Cogliano |
| Apr 5, 2011 | 3 | 17:14 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 5, 2011 | 3 | 14:47 | Offensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Apr 5, 2011 | 3 | 13:05 | Neutral | Andrew Cogliano |
| Apr 5, 2011 | 3 | 00:18 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 5, 2011 | 2 | 11:32 | Offensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Apr 5, 2011 | 2 | 01:05 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 5, 2011 | 2 | 00:53 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 5, 2011 | 1 | 02:17 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 5, 2011 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Andrew Cogliano |
| Apr 2, 2011 | 3 | 18:28 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 2, 2011 | 3 | 13:46 | Defensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Apr 2, 2011 | 3 | 06:24 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 2, 2011 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Andrew Cogliano |
| Apr 2, 2011 | 2 | 16:29 | Offensive | Andrew Cogliano |