Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.4% vs 44.6%). Look for Fraser on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Ebbett wins 43.3% vs left-shot opponents — Fraser shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ebbett 46.8% vs Fraser 45.4% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Fraser leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Ebbett 64.8%
Defensive zone
Fraser 69.6%
Neutral zone
Fraser 58.4%
Result
Colin Fraser favored at 53.6%
46.4%
53.6%
Ebbett
Fraser
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Ebbett
Fraser
Last 10: Ebbett 4-6 Fraser
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Ebbett
Fraser
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Fraser
1
3
Ebbett
Fraser
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Ebbett
Fraser
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ebbett
Fraser
Edge
Even Strength
46.0% (211)
47.6% (382)
-1.6%
Penalty Kill
35.3% (17)
34.9% (152)
+0.4%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Fraser shoots left. Ebbett is 43.3% vs left-shot opponents (164).
Ebbett shoots left. Fraser is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (374).
Home / Away
Ebbett
Fraser
Home
49.2% (128)
47.1% (293)
Away
40.6% (101)
41.7% (259)
By Period
Ebbett
Fraser
P1
49.3%
46.3%
P2
44.0%
43.1%
P3
42.5%
44.7%
OT
66.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
37.5%
43.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ebbett
42.0%▼
43.5%
45.4%
Fraser
44.0%▼
49.5%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2011 | 3 | 11:02 | Neutral | Colin Fraser |
| Mar 17, 2011 | 3 | 06:05 | Neutral | Andrew Ebbett |
| Mar 17, 2011 | 3 | 01:29 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |
| Mar 17, 2011 | 2 | 18:25 | Offensive | Andrew Ebbett |
| Mar 17, 2011 | 2 | 08:10 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |
| Mar 17, 2011 | 2 | 07:39 | Offensive | Colin Fraser |
| Mar 17, 2011 | 2 | 01:31 | Offensive | Colin Fraser |
| Jan 25, 2011 | 2 | 02:50 | Defensive | Andrew Ebbett |
| Jan 25, 2011 | 1 | 08:51 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |
| Jan 25, 2011 | 1 | 02:22 | Offensive | Andrew Ebbett |