Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +10.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Ebbett wins 43.6% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ebbett 44.2% vs Duchene 54.1% (-10.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ebbett 84.6%
Defensive zone
Ebbett 83.4%
Neutral zone
Ebbett 86.2%
Result
Andrew Ebbett favored at 84.1%
84.1%
15.9%
Ebbett
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Ebbett
Duchene
Last 9: Ebbett 2-7 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
5
Ebbett
Duchene
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Ebbett
Duchene
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ebbett
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
42.8% (570)
54.0% (10,249)
-11.2%
Power Play
50.0% (26)
56.9% (1,620)
-6.9%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (46)
49.3% (467)
-5.8%
On even strength, Duchene has a +11.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Ebbett is 43.6% vs left-shot opponents (466).
Ebbett shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (7,938).
Home / Away
Ebbett
Duchene
Home
45.9% (314)
55.6% (6,270)
Away
40.8% (331)
52.7% (6,090)
By Period
Ebbett
Duchene
P1
48.7%
54.5%
P2
41.9%
54.5%
P3
39.7%
53.4%
OT
50.0%
55.9%
Final 5 min
38.0%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ebbett
42.0%▼
43.5%
43.3%
Duchene
52.0%▲
49.5%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2013 | 3 | 09:45 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 28, 2013 | 3 | 12:36 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 28, 2013 | 3 | 07:25 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 28, 2013 | 1 | 04:59 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 24, 2013 | 3 | 08:40 | Defensive | Andrew Ebbett |
| Mar 24, 2013 | 3 | 07:32 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 24, 2013 | 3 | 07:20 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 24, 2013 | 2 | 11:11 | Defensive | Andrew Ebbett |
| Mar 24, 2013 | 2 | 07:10 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |