Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.1% vs 48.3%). Look for Shaw on offensive-zone draws (90% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Shaw 48.2% vs Nelson 48.3% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Shaw leads 13-7 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Shaw 50.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 77.0%
Neutral zone
Nelson 62.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 58.8%
41.2%
58.8%
Shaw
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
7
(20 meetings)
13
7
Shaw
Nelson
Last 10: Shaw 6-4 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Shaw
9
1
Shaw
Nelson
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
4
Shaw
Nelson
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Shaw
4
2
Shaw
Nelson
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Shaw
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (3,088)
47.9% (9,695)
+0.0%
Power Play
50.9% (407)
54.5% (1,132)
-3.6%
Penalty Kill
42.1% (57)
43.8% (783)
-1.7%
On power play, Nelson has a +3.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Shaw is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,540).
Shaw shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Home / Away
Shaw
Nelson
Home
50.3% (1,812)
50.0% (5,845)
Away
45.9% (1,740)
46.5% (5,766)
By Period
Shaw
Nelson
P1
48.5%
48.7%
P2
47.9%
48.5%
P3
48.2%
47.7%
OT
41.9%
45.6%
Final 5 min
46.2%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Shaw
52.0%▲
48.5%
48.1%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2019 | 3 | 13:59 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Mar 21, 2019 | 3 | 06:48 | Neutral | Andrew Shaw |
| Mar 21, 2019 | 3 | 03:30 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Mar 21, 2019 | 2 | 12:11 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Mar 14, 2019 | 1 | 06:44 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 5, 2018 | 2 | 07:13 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 2, 2018 | 3 | 08:10 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 2, 2018 | 2 | 01:50 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 26, 2016 | 3 | 18:14 | Neutral | Andrew Shaw |
| Oct 26, 2016 | 3 | 08:31 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Mar 17, 2015 | 1 | 16:04 | Neutral | Andrew Shaw |
| Mar 17, 2015 | 1 | 10:00 | Neutral | Andrew Shaw |
| Dec 13, 2014 | 3 | 01:47 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 13, 2014 | 3 | 01:29 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Dec 13, 2014 | 2 | 17:25 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Dec 13, 2014 | 2 | 08:44 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 13, 2014 | 1 | 12:43 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 13, 2014 | 1 | 09:43 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Dec 13, 2014 | 1 | 06:36 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Dec 13, 2014 | 1 | 02:24 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |