Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Shaw wins 44.0% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Shaw 45.1% vs Backlund 48.1% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Shaw 70.9%
Defensive zone
Backlund 54.3%
Neutral zone
Shaw 55.9%
Result
Andrew Shaw favored at 55.8%
55.8%
44.2%
Shaw
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Shaw
Backlund
Last 6: Shaw 2-4 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Shaw
Backlund
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
3
Shaw
Backlund
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Shaw
1
0
Shaw
Backlund
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Shaw
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
44.4% (430)
47.3% (357)
-2.9%
Power Play
40.9% (22)
55.0% (40)
-14.1%
Penalty Kill
20.0% (5)
30.0% (10)
-10.0%
On power play, Backlund has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Shaw is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (339).
Shaw shoots right. Backlund is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (121).
Home / Away
Shaw
Backlund
Home
45.5% (224)
45.0% (211)
Away
42.5% (233)
50.5% (196)
By Period
Shaw
Backlund
P1
39.1%
47.6%
P2
41.7%
53.0%
P3
50.3%
41.2%
OT
0.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
43.2%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Shaw
52.0%▲
48.5%
44.0%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2013 | 3 | 09:27 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Apr 26, 2013 | 1 | 02:04 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Mar 26, 2013 | 1 | 00:55 | Neutral | Andrew Shaw |
| Mar 26, 2013 | 1 | 00:40 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 2, 2013 | 2 | 03:35 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 2, 2013 | 2 | 00:47 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |