Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (85% H2H, 20 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Shaw 48.2% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-7.9%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 26-16 in 42 meetings
Offensive zone
Shaw 84.0%
Defensive zone
Shaw 83.1%
Neutral zone
Shaw 85.9%
Result
Andrew Shaw favored at 83.8%
83.8%
16.2%
Shaw
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
26
(42 meetings)
16
26
Shaw
O'Reilly
Last 10: Shaw 3-7 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Shaw
12
6
Shaw
O'Reilly
18 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
17
Shaw
O'Reilly
20 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
3
Shaw
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Shaw
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (3,088)
56.2% (15,260)
-8.3%
Power Play
50.9% (407)
58.8% (3,445)
-7.9%
Penalty Kill
42.1% (57)
51.4% (2,811)
-9.3%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Shaw is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,540).
Shaw shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,689).
Home / Away
Shaw
O'Reilly
Home
50.3% (1,812)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
45.9% (1,740)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Shaw
O'Reilly
P1
48.5%
55.6%
P2
47.9%
57.0%
P3
48.2%
55.1%
OT
41.9%
62.2%
Final 5 min
46.2%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Shaw
52.0%▲
48.5%
48.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25, 2017 | 2 | 14:24 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 25, 2017 | 2 | 11:33 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 25, 2017 | 2 | 08:21 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 25, 2017 | 1 | 12:40 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Nov 25, 2017 | 1 | 00:10 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 11, 2017 | 3 | 18:25 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 11, 2017 | 3 | 16:12 | Defensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Oct 5, 2017 | 3 | 18:43 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Apr 5, 2017 | 3 | 19:35 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 5, 2017 | 3 | 19:29 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 5, 2017 | 3 | 19:19 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Apr 5, 2017 | 3 | 10:11 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2017 | 3 | 09:06 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Jan 31, 2017 | 1 | 08:59 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 21, 2017 | 3 | 16:10 | Neutral | Andrew Shaw |
| Jan 21, 2017 | 2 | 17:26 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 21, 2017 | 1 | 03:12 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 13, 2016 | 3 | 17:56 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 13, 2016 | 3 | 09:40 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 13, 2016 | 2 | 06:09 | Defensive | Andrew Shaw |