Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Shaw wins 53.4% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Shaw 53.3% vs O'Reilly 59.5% (-5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Shaw 81.1%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 73.2%
Neutral zone
Shaw 59.3%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 55.6%
44.4%
55.6%
Shaw
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Shaw
O'Reilly
Last 8: Shaw 3-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Shaw
2
0
Shaw
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
4
Shaw
O'Reilly
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Shaw
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Shaw
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (217)
60.3% (1,517)
-8.7%
Power Play
61.9% (105)
61.5% (387)
+0.4%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (4)
55.0% (220)
-55.0%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +55.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Shaw is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (232).
Shaw shoots right. O'Reilly is 59.7% vs right-shot opponents (713).
Home / Away
Shaw
O'Reilly
Home
55.2% (163)
62.5% (1,143)
Away
53.4% (163)
57.1% (981)
By Period
Shaw
O'Reilly
P1
56.7%
56.8%
P2
50.9%
64.6%
P3
55.6%
58.5%
Final 5 min
52.4%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Shaw
52.0%▲
48.5%
54.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
60.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25, 2017 | 2 | 14:24 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 25, 2017 | 2 | 11:33 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 25, 2017 | 2 | 08:21 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 25, 2017 | 1 | 12:40 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Nov 25, 2017 | 1 | 00:10 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 11, 2017 | 3 | 18:25 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 11, 2017 | 3 | 16:12 | Defensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Oct 5, 2017 | 3 | 18:43 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |