Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (44.0% vs 43.9%). Look for Gagner on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Shaw wins 44.1% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Shaw 45.1% vs Gagner 44.6% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Shaw 55.7%
Defensive zone
Gagner 54.4%
Neutral zone
Gagner 53.9%
Result
Andrew Shaw favored at 53.7%
53.7%
46.3%
Shaw
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Shaw
Gagner
Last 5: Shaw 1-4 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gagner
1
3
Shaw
Gagner
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gagner
0
1
Shaw
Gagner
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Shaw
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
44.4% (430)
42.1% (575)
+2.3%
Power Play
40.9% (22)
55.3% (123)
-14.4%
Penalty Kill
20.0% (5)
34.9% (43)
-14.9%
On penalty kill, Gagner has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Shaw is 44.1% vs right-shot opponents (118).
Shaw shoots right. Gagner is 44.1% vs right-shot opponents (186).
Home / Away
Shaw
Gagner
Home
45.5% (224)
45.6% (375)
Away
42.5% (233)
42.1% (366)
By Period
Shaw
Gagner
P1
39.1%
40.1%
P2
41.7%
42.2%
P3
50.3%
48.2%
OT
0.0%
56.3%
Final 5 min
43.2%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Shaw
52.0%▲
48.5%
44.0%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
43.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2013 | 3 | 19:18 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Mar 10, 2013 | 3 | 09:32 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Feb 25, 2013 | 3 | 00:59 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Feb 25, 2013 | 1 | 13:48 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Feb 25, 2013 | 1 | 09:55 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |