Scouting Report
Andy McDonald holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for McDonald on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). McDonald wins 61.7% vs right-shot opponents — Smithson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDonald 57.2% vs Smithson 56.8% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDonald 82.6%
Defensive zone
Smithson 76.3%
Neutral zone
Smithson 52.0%
Result
Andy McDonald favored at 57.4%
57.4%
42.6%
McDonald
Smithson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
McDonald
Smithson
Last 7: McDonald 4-3 Smithson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDonald
4
0
McDonald
Smithson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smithson
0
3
McDonald
Smithson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDonald
Smithson
Edge
Even Strength
58.9% (246)
59.8% (778)
-0.9%
Power Play
62.7% (75)
54.2% (24)
+8.5%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (23)
49.0% (198)
-1.2%
On power play, McDonald has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smithson shoots right. McDonald is 61.7% vs right-shot opponents (107).
McDonald shoots left. Smithson is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (790).
Home / Away
McDonald
Smithson
Home
63.5% (148)
59.2% (534)
Away
56.2% (201)
55.5% (472)
By Period
McDonald
Smithson
P1
64.2%
56.1%
P2
53.8%
58.0%
P3
59.8%
58.6%
OT
66.7%
37.5%
Final 5 min
48.3%
58.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDonald
56.0%▲
48.0%
59.3%
Smithson
52.0%▼
58.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2011 | 2 | 06:57 | Offensive | Andy McDonald |
| Nov 24, 2010 | 1 | 06:31 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Nov 11, 2010 | OT | 04:44 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Oct 28, 2010 | 1 | 10:40 | Offensive | Andy McDonald |
| Oct 14, 2010 | 3 | 18:57 | Offensive | Andy McDonald |
| Oct 14, 2010 | 3 | 03:38 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Oct 14, 2010 | 1 | 08:42 | Offensive | Andy McDonald |