Scouting Report
Andy McDonald holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). McDonald wins 58.1% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDonald 54.8% vs Pavelski 54.1% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
McDonald 58.2%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 72.2%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 53.5%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 55.1%
44.9%
55.1%
McDonald
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
McDonald
Pavelski
Last 10: McDonald 5-5 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDonald
3
2
McDonald
Pavelski
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
3
McDonald
Pavelski
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDonald
1
0
McDonald
Pavelski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDonald
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
55.5% (436)
53.6% (8,791)
+1.9%
Power Play
56.5% (177)
58.2% (2,122)
-1.7%
Penalty Kill
47.7% (44)
50.9% (1,138)
-3.2%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +3.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. McDonald is 58.1% vs right-shot opponents (227).
McDonald shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Home / Away
McDonald
Pavelski
Home
54.9% (297)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
56.0% (366)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
McDonald
Pavelski
P1
58.5%
53.5%
P2
52.5%
55.2%
P3
54.1%
53.9%
OT
73.7%
52.3%
Final 5 min
50.3%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDonald
56.0%▲
48.0%
55.5%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2012 | 3 | 19:02 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 3, 2012 | 3 | 05:32 | Offensive | Andy McDonald |
| Mar 3, 2012 | 2 | 18:27 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 3, 2012 | 2 | 11:39 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 3, 2012 | 2 | 00:36 | Offensive | Andy McDonald |
| Feb 12, 2012 | 2 | 15:43 | Offensive | Andy McDonald |
| Feb 12, 2012 | 1 | 13:37 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 2 | 17:24 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 2 | 07:11 | Neutral | Andy McDonald |
| Nov 4, 2010 | 2 | 09:27 | Defensive | Andy McDonald |