Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). McDonald wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Gaustad shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDonald 54.8% vs Gaustad 57.6% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDonald 90.8%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 75.8%
Neutral zone
McDonald 57.3%
Result
Paul Gaustad favored at 50.8%
49.2%
50.8%
McDonald
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
McDonald
Gaustad
Last 8: McDonald 3-5 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDonald
3
0
McDonald
Gaustad
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
0
5
McDonald
Gaustad
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDonald
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
55.5% (436)
58.2% (4,334)
-2.7%
Power Play
56.5% (177)
65.4% (188)
-8.9%
Penalty Kill
47.7% (44)
54.8% (1,290)
-7.1%
On power play, Gaustad has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. McDonald is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (436).
McDonald shoots left. Gaustad is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,774).
Home / Away
McDonald
Gaustad
Home
54.9% (297)
59.5% (2,929)
Away
56.0% (366)
55.9% (2,897)
By Period
McDonald
Gaustad
P1
58.5%
58.2%
P2
52.5%
56.4%
P3
54.1%
58.3%
OT
73.7%
66.0%
Final 5 min
50.3%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDonald
56.0%▲
48.0%
55.5%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
57.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2013 | 3 | 19:43 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 5, 2013 | 3 | 03:07 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 5, 2013 | 3 | 02:46 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 5, 2013 | 3 | 01:15 | Offensive | Andy McDonald |
| Feb 5, 2013 | 2 | 17:12 | Offensive | Andy McDonald |
| Feb 5, 2013 | 2 | 16:07 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 5, 2013 | 2 | 11:53 | Offensive | Andy McDonald |
| Feb 18, 2011 | 2 | 17:31 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |