Scouting Report
Andy McDonald holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for McDonald on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). McDonald wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Koivu shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDonald 54.8% vs Koivu 51.8% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDonald 88.2%
Defensive zone
Koivu 73.8%
Neutral zone
McDonald 65.2%
Result
Andy McDonald favored at 62.1%
62.1%
37.9%
McDonald
Koivu
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
McDonald
Koivu
Last 8: McDonald 5-3 Koivu
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDonald
4
0
McDonald
Koivu
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Koivu
0
3
McDonald
Koivu
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDonald
1
0
McDonald
Koivu
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDonald
Koivu
Edge
Even Strength
55.5% (436)
51.9% (3,221)
+3.6%
Power Play
56.5% (177)
59.3% (437)
-2.8%
Penalty Kill
47.7% (44)
48.0% (764)
-0.3%
On even strength, McDonald has a +3.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Koivu shoots left. McDonald is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (436).
McDonald shoots left. Koivu is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,153).
Home / Away
McDonald
Koivu
Home
54.9% (297)
53.5% (2,281)
Away
56.0% (366)
50.1% (2,209)
By Period
McDonald
Koivu
P1
58.5%
51.1%
P2
52.5%
52.6%
P3
54.1%
51.8%
OT
73.7%
52.3%
Final 5 min
50.3%
55.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDonald
56.0%▲
48.0%
55.5%
Koivu
46.0%▼
50.0%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2012 | 1 | 12:56 | Defensive | Saku Koivu |
| Mar 16, 2011 | 3 | 19:02 | Offensive | Andy McDonald |
| Mar 16, 2011 | 3 | 18:44 | Offensive | Andy McDonald |
| Mar 16, 2011 | 3 | 16:03 | Defensive | Saku Koivu |
| Mar 16, 2011 | 2 | 09:04 | Offensive | Andy McDonald |
| Mar 16, 2011 | 1 | 16:27 | Offensive | Andy McDonald |
| Mar 16, 2011 | 1 | 03:10 | Neutral | Andy McDonald |
| Feb 19, 2011 | 1 | 12:49 | Defensive | Saku Koivu |