Scouting Report
Antoine Vermette holds a +10.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Vermette wins 64.0% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Vermette 61.3% vs Spezza 51.9% (+10.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 83.6%
Defensive zone
Spezza 78.0%
Neutral zone
Spezza 82.5%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 81.5%
18.5%
81.5%
Vermette
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Vermette
Spezza
Last 9: Vermette 2-7 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
3
Vermette
Spezza
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
2
Vermette
Spezza
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
2
Vermette
Spezza
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Vermette
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
62.4% (880)
51.3% (526)
+11.1%
Power Play
63.0% (135)
57.7% (123)
+5.3%
Penalty Kill
61.1% (180)
44.8% (29)
+16.3%
On penalty kill, Vermette has a +16.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Vermette is 64.0% vs right-shot opponents (442).
Vermette shoots left. Spezza is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (491).
Home / Away
Vermette
Spezza
Home
63.4% (585)
53.7% (374)
Away
61.1% (610)
50.3% (304)
By Period
Vermette
Spezza
P1
62.5%
50.2%
P2
63.4%
50.2%
P3
60.9%
56.2%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
61.9%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Vermette
58.0%▼
62.0%
62.3%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2017 | 3 | 18:17 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 10, 2017 | 3 | 14:42 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 10, 2017 | 2 | 04:39 | Defensive | Antoine Vermette |
| Dec 13, 2016 | 3 | 03:47 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 13, 2016 | 3 | 01:08 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 13, 2016 | 2 | 19:48 | Offensive | Antoine Vermette |
| Dec 13, 2016 | 1 | 16:42 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 13, 2016 | 3 | 03:51 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 13, 2016 | 2 | 10:28 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |