Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.8% vs 55.0%). Look for Vermette on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Vermette wins 55.4% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Vermette 55.4% vs Pavelski 54.5% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Vermette 50.0%
Defensive zone
Vermette 67.7%
Neutral zone
Vermette 50.5%
Result
Antoine Vermette favored at 52.2%
52.2%
47.8%
Vermette
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Vermette
Pavelski
Last 8: Vermette 7-1 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Vermette
6
1
Vermette
Pavelski
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Vermette
1
0
Vermette
Pavelski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Vermette
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (1,001)
53.6% (657)
+0.5%
Power Play
62.9% (256)
60.2% (221)
+2.7%
Penalty Kill
54.3% (94)
51.7% (60)
+2.6%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Vermette is 55.4% vs right-shot opponents (491).
Vermette shoots left. Pavelski is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (731).
Home / Away
Vermette
Pavelski
Home
55.9% (690)
57.4% (470)
Away
55.7% (661)
52.6% (468)
By Period
Vermette
Pavelski
P1
51.8%
53.4%
P2
55.0%
55.6%
P3
60.3%
55.5%
OT
60.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
56.6%
55.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Vermette
58.0%▼
62.0%
55.8%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
55.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2016 | 1 | 09:33 | Offensive | Antoine Vermette |
| Mar 20, 2016 | 1 | 09:28 | Offensive | Antoine Vermette |
| Mar 17, 2016 | 3 | 10:03 | Offensive | Antoine Vermette |
| Feb 13, 2016 | 3 | 12:30 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 13, 2016 | 3 | 06:50 | Offensive | Antoine Vermette |
| Feb 13, 2016 | 1 | 05:18 | Offensive | Antoine Vermette |
| Jan 21, 2016 | 3 | 18:55 | Offensive | Antoine Vermette |
| Jan 21, 2016 | 3 | 17:20 | Defensive | Antoine Vermette |