Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on defensive-zone draws (90% H2H, 10 meetings). Vermette wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Thornton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Vermette 55.0% vs Thornton 57.3% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Thornton leads 15-7 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Thornton 52.4%
Defensive zone
Thornton 53.9%
Neutral zone
Thornton 54.7%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 53.6%
46.4%
53.6%
Vermette
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
15
(22 meetings)
7
15
Vermette
Thornton
Last 10: Vermette 3-7 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Vermette
4
3
Vermette
Thornton
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
1
9
Vermette
Thornton
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
2
3
Vermette
Thornton
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Vermette
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
54.7% (1,139)
58.7% (722)
-4.0%
Power Play
60.2% (251)
58.5% (147)
+1.7%
Penalty Kill
52.4% (187)
51.2% (86)
+1.2%
On even strength, Thornton has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Vermette is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (934).
Vermette shoots left. Thornton is 59.3% vs left-shot opponents (528).
Home / Away
Vermette
Thornton
Home
56.8% (694)
60.1% (496)
Away
54.1% (883)
55.8% (459)
By Period
Vermette
Thornton
P1
52.5%
60.4%
P2
56.8%
54.7%
P3
56.7%
58.2%
OT
55.3%
61.5%
Final 5 min
56.5%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Vermette
58.0%▼
62.0%
55.3%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
58.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2015 | 3 | 06:59 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 14, 2015 | 2 | 00:54 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 14, 2015 | 1 | 10:20 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 14, 2015 | 1 | 06:03 | Neutral | Antoine Vermette |
| Feb 13, 2015 | 3 | 19:11 | Offensive | Antoine Vermette |
| Feb 13, 2015 | 2 | 17:33 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 13, 2015 | 2 | 14:39 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 13, 2015 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Antoine Vermette |
| Feb 13, 2015 | 1 | 13:08 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 13, 2015 | 1 | 07:19 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 13, 2015 | 3 | 07:04 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 13, 2015 | 2 | 02:39 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 13, 2015 | 1 | 11:12 | Offensive | Antoine Vermette |
| Jan 13, 2015 | 1 | 09:39 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 13, 2015 | 1 | 00:26 | Defensive | Antoine Vermette |
| Nov 22, 2014 | 3 | 14:11 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 22, 2014 | 3 | 13:51 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 22, 2014 | 2 | 09:57 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 22, 2014 | 2 | 02:46 | Offensive | Antoine Vermette |
| Nov 22, 2014 | 1 | 14:50 | Offensive | Antoine Vermette |