Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (62.3% vs 62.6%). Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Vermette wins 61.2% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Vermette 61.3% vs Duchene 61.5% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 55.6%
Defensive zone
Duchene 53.1%
Neutral zone
Duchene 57.5%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 55.1%
44.9%
55.1%
Vermette
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Vermette
Duchene
Last 6: Vermette 1-5 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
2
Vermette
Duchene
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
2
Vermette
Duchene
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Vermette
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Vermette
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
62.4% (880)
62.2% (802)
+0.2%
Power Play
63.0% (135)
67.3% (153)
-4.3%
Penalty Kill
61.1% (180)
59.4% (143)
+1.7%
On power play, Duchene has a +4.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Vermette is 61.2% vs left-shot opponents (753).
Vermette shoots left. Duchene is 60.9% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Home / Away
Vermette
Duchene
Home
63.4% (585)
66.5% (555)
Away
61.1% (610)
58.6% (543)
By Period
Vermette
Duchene
P1
62.5%
63.2%
P2
63.4%
59.6%
P3
60.9%
65.0%
OT
50.0%
71.4%
Final 5 min
61.9%
65.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Vermette
58.0%▼
62.0%
62.3%
Duchene
52.0%▲
49.5%
62.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2017 | 3 | 17:21 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 19, 2017 | 2 | 01:34 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 19, 2017 | 1 | 00:47 | Offensive | Antoine Vermette |
| Jan 12, 2017 | 3 | 09:00 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 12, 2017 | 2 | 17:29 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 12, 2017 | 1 | 09:31 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |