Scouting Report
Antoine Vermette holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Vermette wins 60.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Vermette 59.1% vs Hertl 50.7% (+9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 70.1%
Defensive zone
Hertl 59.4%
Neutral zone
Hertl 70.8%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 67.7%
32.3%
67.7%
Vermette
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Vermette
Hertl
Last 8: Vermette 3-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Vermette
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Vermette
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Vermette
2
1
Vermette
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Vermette
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
60.5% (767)
51.5% (891)
+9.0%
Power Play
61.9% (84)
54.8% (135)
+7.1%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (164)
41.5% (130)
+15.2%
On penalty kill, Vermette has a +15.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Vermette is 60.0% vs left-shot opponents (615).
Vermette shoots left. Hertl is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (715).
Home / Away
Vermette
Hertl
Home
63.0% (481)
52.6% (544)
Away
57.3% (534)
49.2% (612)
By Period
Vermette
Hertl
P1
61.6%
49.4%
P2
60.4%
51.7%
P3
58.9%
51.4%
OT
46.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
63.1%
53.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Vermette
58.0%▼
62.0%
60.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2018 | 3 | 15:06 | Neutral | Antoine Vermette |
| Jan 21, 2018 | 3 | 02:33 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 20, 2017 | 2 | 16:00 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 20, 2017 | 2 | 15:06 | Neutral | Antoine Vermette |
| Nov 20, 2017 | 2 | 10:16 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2017 | 3 | 16:49 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2017 | 3 | 03:02 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2017 | 2 | 14:33 | Defensive | Antoine Vermette |