Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +9.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Watson on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Watson wins 36.1% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Watson 46.0% vs Seguin 53.6% (-9.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Seguin 55.2%
Defensive zone
Watson 50.9%
Neutral zone
Seguin 52.4%
Result
Tyler Seguin favored at 52.3%
47.7%
52.3%
Watson
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Watson
Seguin
Last 6: Watson 3-3 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
1
Watson
Seguin
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
1
Watson
Seguin
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Watson
3
1
Watson
Seguin
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Watson
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (182)
53.7% (8,071)
-7.5%
Power Play
33.3% (6)
55.9% (810)
-22.6%
Penalty Kill
38.3% (47)
49.3% (762)
-11.0%
On power play, Seguin has a +22.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Watson is 36.1% vs right-shot opponents (72).
Watson shoots right. Seguin is 54.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,846).
Home / Away
Watson
Seguin
Home
44.2% (113)
55.9% (4,759)
Away
44.3% (122)
51.4% (4,885)
By Period
Watson
Seguin
P1
40.5%
52.8%
P2
46.2%
53.3%
P3
46.6%
54.7%
Final 5 min
45.3%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Watson
38.0%▼
44.5%
44.3%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
53.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2017 | 1 | 06:06 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Apr 6, 2017 | 3 | 19:54 | Neutral | Austin Watson |
| Apr 6, 2017 | 3 | 08:58 | Neutral | Austin Watson |
| Apr 6, 2017 | 2 | 13:45 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Apr 6, 2017 | 2 | 04:35 | Neutral | Austin Watson |
| Apr 6, 2017 | 1 | 18:52 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |