Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +10.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Watson on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Watson wins 38.1% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Watson 47.2% vs Seguin 50.9% (-10.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Seguin 63.7%
Defensive zone
Seguin 70.8%
Neutral zone
Seguin 53.1%
Result
Tyler Seguin favored at 56.7%
43.3%
56.7%
Watson
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Watson
Seguin
Last 5: Watson 3-2 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
1
Watson
Seguin
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Watson
3
1
Watson
Seguin
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Watson
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
41.2% (34)
51.1% (720)
-9.9%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (8)
14.3% (7)
+23.2%
On penalty kill, Watson has a +23.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Watson is 38.1% vs right-shot opponents (21).
Watson shoots right. Seguin is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (207).
Home / Away
Watson
Seguin
Home
45.5% (11)
52.0% (421)
Away
38.7% (31)
49.9% (365)
By Period
Watson
Seguin
P1
35.3%
50.8%
P2
27.3%
51.3%
P3
57.1%
51.0%
Final 5 min
41.7%
56.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Watson
38.0%▼
44.5%
40.5%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2017 | 3 | 19:54 | Neutral | Austin Watson |
| Apr 6, 2017 | 3 | 08:58 | Neutral | Austin Watson |
| Apr 6, 2017 | 2 | 13:45 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Apr 6, 2017 | 2 | 04:35 | Neutral | Austin Watson |
| Apr 6, 2017 | 1 | 18:52 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |