Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 53.9% vs left-shot opponents — Kelly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.9% vs Kelly 50.1% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 93.0%
Defensive zone
Matthews 69.7%
Neutral zone
Matthews 81.4%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 81.3%
81.3%
18.7%
Matthews
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Matthews
Kelly
Last 5: Matthews 4-1 Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Kelly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
Kelly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Kelly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (9,298)
51.1% (3,010)
+2.9%
Power Play
55.5% (530)
60.6% (71)
-5.1%
Penalty Kill
49.8% (482)
44.7% (689)
+5.1%
On power play, Kelly has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. Matthews is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (6,605).
Matthews shoots left. Kelly is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,408).
Home / Away
Matthews
Kelly
Home
56.3% (5,065)
52.6% (1,965)
Away
51.5% (5,245)
47.4% (1,813)
By Period
Matthews
Kelly
P1
55.5%
49.2%
P2
53.3%
49.1%
P3
52.8%
51.9%
OT
56.6%
53.5%
Final 5 min
54.1%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.9%
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2017 | 2 | 12:13 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 21, 2017 | 1 | 14:02 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 12, 2016 | 3 | 17:54 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 12, 2016 | 3 | 04:15 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 12, 2016 | 2 | 03:26 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |