Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Kelly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 47.1% vs Kelly 45.4% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 91.9%
Defensive zone
Matthews 55.0%
Neutral zone
Matthews 70.8%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 72.9%
72.9%
27.1%
Matthews
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Matthews
Kelly
Last 5: Matthews 4-1 Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Kelly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
Kelly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Kelly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (1,000)
47.5% (373)
-1.3%
Penalty Kill
14.3% (7)
35.9% (128)
-21.6%
On penalty kill, Kelly has a +21.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. Matthews is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (683).
Matthews shoots left. Kelly is 41.5% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Home / Away
Matthews
Kelly
Home
48.4% (562)
47.5% (259)
Away
45.3% (570)
41.3% (242)
By Period
Matthews
Kelly
P1
51.3%
46.7%
P2
44.5%
42.9%
P3
44.6%
43.4%
Final 5 min
47.9%
42.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
46.8%
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2017 | 2 | 12:13 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 21, 2017 | 1 | 14:02 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 12, 2016 | 3 | 17:54 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 12, 2016 | 3 | 04:15 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 12, 2016 | 2 | 03:26 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |