Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 57.1% vs left-shot opponents — Nielsen shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.9% vs Nielsen 46.7% (+8.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 95.6%
Defensive zone
Matthews 79.2%
Neutral zone
Matthews 86.3%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 88.6%
88.6%
11.4%
Matthews
Nielsen
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
0
(6 meetings)
6
0
Matthews
Nielsen
Last 6: Matthews 6-0 Nielsen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
0
Matthews
Nielsen
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
Nielsen
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Nielsen
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Nielsen
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (613)
47.6% (836)
+6.9%
Power Play
52.9% (68)
53.2% (47)
-0.3%
Penalty Kill
71.4% (7)
38.0% (158)
+33.4%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +33.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nielsen shoots left. Matthews is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (462).
Matthews shoots left. Nielsen is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Matthews
Nielsen
Home
59.8% (351)
50.4% (508)
Away
49.0% (337)
42.6% (533)
By Period
Matthews
Nielsen
P1
58.0%
48.1%
P2
49.6%
44.6%
P3
55.4%
46.8%
OT
83.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
56.4%
48.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
54.5%
Nielsen
50.0%▬
50.0%
46.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2018 | 3 | 10:21 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 24, 2018 | 1 | 09:19 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 18, 2018 | 3 | 05:38 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 18, 2018 | 1 | 11:30 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 18, 2017 | 3 | 16:31 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 18, 2017 | 1 | 01:40 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |