Scouting Report
Greg McKegg holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for McKegg on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Matthews wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — McKegg shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 47.1% vs McKegg 50.0% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 71.7%
Defensive zone
McKegg 72.7%
Neutral zone
Matthews 50.0%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 50.0%
50.0%
50.0%
Matthews
McKegg
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Matthews
McKegg
Last 5: Matthews 2-3 McKegg
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: McKegg
2
3
Matthews
McKegg
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
McKegg
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (1,000)
49.1% (171)
-2.9%
Power Play
53.6% (125)
100.0% (3)
-46.4%
Penalty Kill
14.3% (7)
50.0% (6)
-35.7%
On power play, McKegg has a +46.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McKegg shoots left. Matthews is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (683).
Matthews shoots left. McKegg is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (94).
Home / Away
Matthews
McKegg
Home
48.4% (562)
50.7% (75)
Away
45.3% (570)
49.5% (105)
By Period
Matthews
McKegg
P1
51.3%
45.9%
P2
44.5%
53.3%
P3
44.6%
50.8%
Final 5 min
47.9%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
46.8%
McKegg
40.0%▼
48.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2017 | 3 | 18:39 | Neutral | Greg McKegg |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 1 | 02:49 | Neutral | Greg McKegg |
| Nov 17, 2016 | 2 | 18:53 | Neutral | Greg McKegg |
| Nov 17, 2016 | 1 | 15:36 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 17, 2016 | 1 | 09:06 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |