Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +15.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Kempe on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Matthews wins 53.9% vs left-shot opponents — Kempe shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.9% vs Kempe 40.7% (+15.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 67.5%
Defensive zone
Kempe 55.7%
Neutral zone
Kempe 57.2%
Result
Mario Kempe favored at 51.1%
48.9%
51.1%
Matthews
Kempe
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Matthews
Kempe
Last 5: Matthews 2-3 Kempe
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Kempe
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kempe
1
3
Matthews
Kempe
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Kempe
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (9,298)
38.7% (380)
+15.3%
Power Play
55.5% (530)
33.3% (3)
+22.2%
Penalty Kill
49.8% (482)
31.3% (16)
+18.5%
On power play, Matthews has a +22.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kempe shoots left. Matthews is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (6,605).
Matthews shoots left. Kempe is 37.1% vs left-shot opponents (272).
Home / Away
Matthews
Kempe
Home
56.3% (5,065)
40.1% (177)
Away
51.5% (5,245)
36.9% (222)
By Period
Matthews
Kempe
P1
55.5%
34.7%
P2
53.3%
40.4%
P3
52.8%
38.8%
OT
56.6%
100.0%
Final 5 min
54.1%
39.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.9%
Kempe
50.0%▲
38.5%
38.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2019 | 3 | 14:02 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 1 | 08:46 | Defensive | Mario Kempe |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 1 | 04:55 | Defensive | Mario Kempe |
| Jan 20, 2019 | 2 | 06:22 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 20, 2019 | 2 | 06:14 | Defensive | Mario Kempe |