Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +13.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Kempe on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 51.9% vs Kempe 41.0% (+13.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 61.8%
Defensive zone
Kempe 57.8%
Neutral zone
Kempe 54.8%
Result
Mario Kempe favored at 53.9%
46.1%
53.9%
Matthews
Kempe
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Matthews
Kempe
Last 5: Matthews 2-3 Kempe
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Kempe
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kempe
1
3
Matthews
Kempe
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Kempe
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (892)
38.5% (312)
+13.9%
Power Play
45.5% (11)
33.3% (3)
+12.2%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (8)
35.7% (14)
+1.8%
On even strength, Matthews has a +13.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kempe shoots left. Matthews is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (606).
Matthews shoots left. Kempe is 37.4% vs left-shot opponents (219).
Home / Away
Matthews
Kempe
Home
54.3% (420)
38.8% (160)
Away
50.3% (491)
37.9% (169)
By Period
Matthews
Kempe
P1
54.2%
35.9%
P2
54.3%
39.0%
P3
47.8%
38.9%
OT
55.6%
100.0%
Final 5 min
55.8%
42.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
52.1%
Kempe
50.0%▲
38.5%
38.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2019 | 3 | 14:02 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 1 | 08:46 | Defensive | Mario Kempe |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 1 | 04:55 | Defensive | Mario Kempe |
| Jan 20, 2019 | 2 | 06:22 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 20, 2019 | 2 | 06:14 | Defensive | Mario Kempe |