Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 51.7% vs Stastny 54.0% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 10-7 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Stastny 67.4%
Defensive zone
Matthews 62.5%
Neutral zone
Stastny 54.0%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 54.1%
45.9%
54.1%
Matthews
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
7
(17 meetings)
10
7
Matthews
Stastny
Last 10: Matthews 6-4 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
2
Matthews
Stastny
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
1
Matthews
Stastny
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Matthews
Stastny
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (795)
52.5% (432)
-0.3%
Power Play
52.5% (40)
60.4% (154)
-7.9%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (32)
66.7% (6)
-22.9%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +22.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Matthews is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (580).
Matthews shoots left. Stastny is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (396).
Home / Away
Matthews
Stastny
Home
53.5% (454)
58.3% (307)
Away
50.1% (413)
50.9% (285)
By Period
Matthews
Stastny
P1
54.8%
57.4%
P2
52.2%
51.7%
P3
48.1%
54.5%
OT
57.1%
80.0%
Final 5 min
54.1%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
51.9%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14, 2021 | 2 | 13:52 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 31, 2021 | 3 | 19:18 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 31, 2021 | 3 | 09:08 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 31, 2021 | 3 | 06:24 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 13, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 13, 2021 | 2 | 07:32 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 13, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 11, 2021 | 3 | 14:37 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 11, 2021 | 1 | 05:26 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 11, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 9, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 9, 2021 | 2 | 19:20 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 9, 2021 | 2 | 03:47 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 9, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 18, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 18, 2021 | 2 | 06:02 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 18, 2021 | 1 | 19:09 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |