Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Zajac on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 54.1% vs right-shot opponents — Zajac shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 54.5% vs Zajac 52.6% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 57.8%
Defensive zone
Zajac 88.5%
Neutral zone
Zajac 68.9%
Result
Travis Zajac favored at 73.5%
26.5%
73.5%
Matthews
Zajac
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Matthews
Zajac
Last 7: Matthews 1-6 Zajac
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zajac
0
1
Matthews
Zajac
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zajac
0
3
Matthews
Zajac
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zajac
1
2
Matthews
Zajac
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Zajac
Edge
Even Strength
55.1% (856)
53.9% (851)
+1.2%
Power Play
54.3% (46)
49.0% (49)
+5.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (18)
48.9% (190)
+1.1%
On power play, Matthews has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zajac shoots right. Matthews is 54.1% vs right-shot opponents (342).
Matthews shoots left. Zajac is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (750).
Home / Away
Matthews
Zajac
Home
57.0% (440)
53.3% (533)
Away
53.1% (480)
52.4% (557)
By Period
Matthews
Zajac
P1
54.0%
54.3%
P2
55.1%
51.8%
P3
56.4%
53.2%
OT
42.9%
14.3%
Final 5 min
51.7%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
55.0%
Zajac
62.0%▲
52.5%
52.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2019 | 3 | 12:25 | Defensive | Travis Zajac |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 2 | 10:11 | Neutral | Travis Zajac |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 2 | 00:07 | Offensive | Travis Zajac |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Travis Zajac |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 1 | 10:41 | Defensive | Travis Zajac |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 1 | 10:31 | Defensive | Travis Zajac |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |