Scouting Report
Ben Smith holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Larsson on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smith 51.8% vs Larsson 49.5% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Larsson leads 9-6 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Larsson 59.9%
Defensive zone
Smith 52.1%
Neutral zone
Larsson 58.2%
Result
Johan Larsson favored at 54.6%
45.4%
54.6%
Smith
Larsson
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
9
(15 meetings)
6
9
Smith
Larsson
Last 10: Smith 5-5 Larsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larsson
1
3
Smith
Larsson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
4
2
Smith
Larsson
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larsson
1
4
Smith
Larsson
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smith
Larsson
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (1,269)
50.5% (4,382)
+3.2%
Power Play
55.6% (27)
47.7% (153)
+7.9%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (369)
43.8% (714)
+1.7%
On power play, Smith has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larsson shoots left. Smith is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,164).
Smith shoots right. Larsson is 49.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,847).
Home / Away
Smith
Larsson
Home
53.8% (860)
51.2% (2,493)
Away
49.8% (805)
48.0% (2,756)
By Period
Smith
Larsson
P1
52.1%
51.6%
P2
50.2%
49.7%
P3
53.3%
47.2%
OT
62.5%
52.3%
Final 5 min
53.0%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smith
38.0%▼
49.0%
51.9%
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2016 | 3 | 12:18 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 3, 2016 | 2 | 04:59 | Offensive | Johan Larsson |
| Mar 19, 2016 | 3 | 14:06 | Defensive | Ben Smith |
| Mar 19, 2016 | 3 | 07:51 | Defensive | Ben Smith |
| Mar 19, 2016 | 2 | 11:06 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Mar 7, 2016 | OT | 04:44 | Defensive | Ben Smith |
| Mar 7, 2016 | 3 | 09:41 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Mar 7, 2016 | 3 | 07:54 | Offensive | Ben Smith |
| Mar 7, 2016 | 3 | 02:37 | Neutral | Ben Smith |
| Mar 7, 2016 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Mar 7, 2016 | 2 | 14:55 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Mar 7, 2016 | 1 | 06:56 | Defensive | Ben Smith |
| Mar 7, 2016 | 1 | 13:53 | Offensive | Johan Larsson |
| Mar 7, 2016 | 1 | 02:58 | Offensive | Johan Larsson |
| Mar 7, 2016 | 1 | 00:25 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |