Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smith 51.8% vs Duchene 54.1% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 9-3 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 62.2%
Defensive zone
Smith 90.1%
Neutral zone
Smith 66.4%
Result
Ben Smith favored at 58.0%
58.0%
42.0%
Smith
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
9
(12 meetings)
3
9
Smith
Duchene
Last 10: Smith 2-8 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
6
Smith
Duchene
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
2
1
Smith
Duchene
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
2
Smith
Duchene
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smith
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (1,269)
54.0% (10,249)
-0.3%
Power Play
55.6% (27)
56.9% (1,620)
-1.3%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (369)
49.3% (467)
-3.8%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Smith is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,164).
Smith shoots right. Duchene is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,422).
Home / Away
Smith
Duchene
Home
53.8% (860)
55.6% (6,270)
Away
49.8% (805)
52.7% (6,090)
By Period
Smith
Duchene
P1
52.1%
54.5%
P2
50.2%
54.5%
P3
53.3%
53.4%
OT
62.5%
55.9%
Final 5 min
53.0%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smith
38.0%▼
49.0%
51.9%
Duchene
52.0%▲
49.5%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2016 | 3 | 06:23 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 11, 2016 | 1 | 18:03 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 20, 2015 | 3 | 06:06 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 6, 2015 | 3 | 03:26 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 6, 2015 | 2 | 06:13 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 26, 2014 | 3 | 01:35 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 26, 2014 | 2 | 18:44 | Defensive | Ben Smith |
| Jan 14, 2014 | 2 | 19:18 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 27, 2013 | 3 | 04:36 | Defensive | Ben Smith |
| Dec 27, 2013 | 3 | 00:51 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 27, 2013 | 1 | 19:18 | Neutral | Ben Smith |
| Dec 27, 2013 | 1 | 12:27 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |