Scouting Report
Ben Smith holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Smith on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smith 51.2% vs Nugent-Hopkins 44.3% (+7.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 66.5%
Defensive zone
Smith 89.6%
Neutral zone
Smith 70.2%
Result
Ben Smith favored at 73.4%
73.4%
26.6%
Smith
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Smith
Nugent-Hopkins
Last 6: Smith 4-2 Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
1
0
Smith
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smith
3
2
Smith
Nugent-Hopkins
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smith
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (321)
45.0% (1,011)
+9.5%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
46.7% (135)
+53.3%
Penalty Kill
44.5% (146)
31.1% (122)
+13.4%
On power play, Smith has a +53.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Smith is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (324).
Smith shoots right. Nugent-Hopkins is 41.3% vs right-shot opponents (489).
Home / Away
Smith
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
54.0% (274)
43.8% (625)
Away
47.9% (194)
43.9% (643)
By Period
Smith
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
51.7%
47.8%
P2
51.7%
39.5%
P3
51.0%
44.2%
Final 5 min
59.2%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smith
38.0%▼
49.0%
51.5%
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
43.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2016 | 3 | 02:12 | Neutral | Ben Smith |
| Nov 29, 2016 | 1 | 14:29 | Defensive | Ben Smith |
| Nov 1, 2016 | 2 | 10:24 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 1, 2016 | 2 | 08:59 | Neutral | Ben Smith |
| Nov 1, 2016 | 1 | 19:34 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 1, 2016 | 1 | 19:29 | Neutral | Ben Smith |